Risks to the Global Economy
Many risks threaten the global economy. The list is all too familiar - oil prices, terrorism, an abrupt economic downturn in China, Iranian and North Korean nuclear developments, and on and on. But the greatest threats to the global economy are rooted in risks in the U.S.: the surge in the current account deficit, drawing in as much as $900 billion per year from outside the U.S.; the increasing budget deficit; the nearly $50 trillion of unfunded liabilities of the U.S. government; the massive increases in military spending absent proportionate increases in non-military spending on international affairs; and the rise of inequality in the U.S. All these suggest a country neither independent of the global economy in this era of globalization but one which acts as if it is an 'independent' superpower. These facts also suggests a country which is failing to deal decisively with its key domestic problems. The Triumph of the Markets: Global Politics and Economics
The gap between the rich countries and the poor countries is not widening. In fact, for the majority of the world's population, that gap is diminishing. Some 60 developing countries have adopted many of the features of market economies and are growing their economies faster than the 30 rich countries. These rapid developers include India and China with 40 percent of the world's population between them. As a result, the gap between a majority of the poor, living in these 60 countries, and the rich countries has been diminishing for a decade. But there are another 60 countries in the world that have not adopted the features of market economies and have not joined the trend towards globalization. Their populations are not only not getting richer, but are frequently actually getting poorer. The income gap between those failing states and the rest of the world is widening rapidly. It is from those countries that future global instability and threats to the US will emerge unless the rich countries take concerted and vigorous action to generate economic development in those countries.
Getting to the Future: Ten Forces Transforming the World
Powerful forces are at work that will transform the world within this decade. Many of these forces are recognized. But their extraordinary power is not. They will transform the context in which businesses operate and businesses must recognize and respond to them if they are to be successful. Technology is on an exponential growth curve. Governments are losing power to supra-national organizations, companies, and non-governmental organizations. Powerful demographic trends have resulted in fewer births everywhere but especially in the rich countries and in dramatically ageing populations. These and the other "global drivers" are examined and their implications for business and governments are demonstrated.
Getting Globalization Right: Rules for Successful Global Investing
Despite September 11 and the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and the threats from terrorists, globalization is alive and well and rebounding to pre-crisis levels. Businesses that seek success through globalization need to make better "country bets." To determine where they should commit their investments in the global economy, businesses need to assess the prospects of countries for political stability and economic growth. Making better country bets offers the best prospects for prospering in the global economy. A set of 15 principles for "getting globalization right," including estimates of corruption, leadership succession, external threats and many others is offered to help businesses make effective assessments of country prospects.
Threats and Opportunities in the 'War Against Terrorism'
The threats are obvious-the failure to capture bin Laden and other senior al Qaeda leaders pose clear threats. But other threats are no less real--steadily increasing casualties in Iraq, the disintegration of nuclear-armed Pakistan, and the radicalization of the Islamic peoples of the Middle East. But so are the opportunities. This is the time for the US to restructure its military away from its Cold War posture to meet the new threats. It is a time for the US to strengthen its foreign policy apparatus and build a cadre of civilian foreign policy experts. This is the time for the US to fashion a true global coalition against terrorism and against weapons of mass destruction that will lead to new relations with Russia, India, and China. This is also the opportunity for the US to lead a more vibrant global economy with diminished political risks.
Leadership In Hard Times
Whether in business or government, leaders are in the midst of hard times. For many leaders, these hard times provide an opportunity to strengthen their leadership positions. Leaders who seize the opportunities within a crisis can re-fashion their strategic vision for the future of their organizations, remobilize resources, and enlist the powerful emotions generated in a crisis to strengthen their ties with their followers.
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